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Ukraine and Yanukovych no longer together?

12.04.2012  |  14:55

For some non-obvious reason, Viktor Yanukovych since the end of 2004 has been called a pro-Russian politician. Some Western media continue to adhere to the inertia of this stereotype, in spite of its weak compliance with the real situation. A recent poll showed that even in the eastern Ukraine Yanukovych is no longer trusted

For some non-obvious reason, Viktor Yanukovych since the end of 2004 has been called a pro-Russian politician. Some Western media continue to adhere to the inertia of this stereotype, in spite of its weak compliance with the real situation. A recent poll showed that even in the eastern Ukraine Yanukovych is no longer trusted.One of methods of measuring the public attitude in the third year of the activity of the "pro-Russian president" has shown that Ukraine has no regions left where the majority would have confidence in Yanukovych as head of state. This information became public on April 1. In any case, according to a survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), the head of state is trusted by 21.9 percent of Ukrainians, and is not trusted by 65.9 percent. As usual, the numbers in the south-east, center and west of Ukraine are markedly different, but none of the macro-regions of the country gives Yanukovych grounds for optimism.As expected, in the west and center of the country public attitude towards their president has not improved.

According to the director of KIIS Vladimir Paniotto, in the central and western Ukraine the level of confidence is 12.5 and 14.6 percent respectively, and 77.4 per cent and 69.4 per cent do not trust the President. In other words, in two years of presidency Yanukovych failed to change the attitude of the residents of this part of the country for the better. This circumstance could have been overlooked if wary attitude of the center and west overlapped with the trust in the south and east of Ukraine, Yanukovych's electoral base and political power - the Party of Regions. However, as shown by the survey of KIIS, in the east nearly twice as many people do not trust him (57.4 vs.

30.6 percent). In the south, 33 percent are for Yanukovych, 56 per cent - against him. Small consolation for the current head of state is the fact that his political opponents are not trusted either.

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The largest number of those who do not trust the opposition lives in the eastern region, - 77.1 percent. The situation is slightly better in the southern region, where the opposition enjoys the support of 14.2 percent, and 64.2 percent do not trust it. Only in the west the sympathy of the people is towards the opposition: 35.5 percent vs.

28.9 percent. Even in the central region the opposition is not trusted by 43.1 percent of respondents compared to 33.5 percent of those who do trust it. The study again confirms the fact that Galicia is a special, unique region, and has very little to do with the "Great Ukraine." The distrust for the opposition is its problem, while Yanukovych has nearly three more years of presidency ahead. The question arises: what did he do wrong? The answer that suggests itself first is the economic turmoil of recent years. The lack of tangible progress in the economy, is, indeed, evident, and this factor naturally affects the popularity of the Ukrainian guarantor of the constitution. But it is doubtful that this is the only decisive factor. Sensible people remember that the Ukrainian economy collapsed exactly at the end of Tymoshenko as prime minister.

Regardless of the crisis, there was Tymoshenko's personal "merit" in the collapse of the economy. People of sound mind see what is happening in the world economy, including the Eurozone and the United States. Therefore, most likely the main cause of loss of confidence in Yanukovych among his electorate is to be found in another area.According to the poll of KIIS, in mid-February of this year at a hypothetical referendum for the entry of Ukraine into the alliance with Russia and Belarus, 55 percent of Ukrainians are ready to vote "yes", and 27 percent - "no". The supporters of the entry into such an alliance are dominated by the eastern, southern and central regions of the country - 77 vs. 11 percent, 72 percent versus 9 and 4 to 31 percent, respectively.For comparison, at a referendum on the accession of Ukraine to the EU, 40 percent would vote "yes" and 33 percent - "no." The supporters of the Union reside in the western and central regions (67 vs.

13 percent and 46 vs. 26 percent) and opponents - in the south and east. It should be noted that, since the issue of geopolitical choice has always been painful for the Ukrainian elite, earlier sociological services did not offer the opposite options in one poll. For example, asking only one question: "Should Ukraine join NATO?" Or "Should Ukraine join the EU?" Or "Are you interested in Ukraine's entry into a common economic space with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan?".

Such one-sided polls gave a wide scope for interpretation and slippery questionable manipulation. In the survey above, the question was in the format "either-or." This result is important not only for its uniqueness, but stability. Comparable numbers have been obtained for the past five to seven years. This is despite the fact that the Ukrainian mass media does not conduct campaigns for integration projects with Russian participation. On the contrary, the information field of Ukraine is formed by the oligarchs, therefore on television, radio and in print criticism of any actions of Moscow is a usual thing. For some reason Ukrainian oligarchs have decided that they needed to join Europe and that they were welcome there. Let's go back to sociology. These two case studies above perfectly fit each other.

It is easy, based on their results, to establish a causal relationship between political sympathies and antipathies of the Ukrainians. But the current Ukrainian government is oblivious to these obvious correlations. Not only that, apparently, it intends to continue to follow its line contrary to the expectations of their base voters.For example, recently, billionaire Khoroshkovskiy who previously occupied the post of head of the Security Service of Ukraine was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister. From a number of statements in the media it is easy to draw conclusions on which direction the newly appointed First Deputy Prime Minister intends to focus. "We always have options, but in this case, our strategy - the European Union - is expressed not only in our desires, but also in the law," he said in a recent interview with "Komsomolskaya Pravda in Ukraine." Responding to a question about the attitude of Ukraine to the fact that in 2015 Russia is going to create a Eurasian Union, a possible counterweight to the EU, he said: "Our choice is enshrined in law (European integration). This is the decision made by the powers of the President of Ukraine, according to the head of state.""My opinion - splits are quite uncomfortable, so we need to adapt our legislation and the possibility of a goal-setting as quickly as possible," he added.

Speaking of additional markets in case there are problems with the Customs Union, Khoroshkovskiy said: "Business is quickly readjusting. I will not analyze each individual product, but it comes to paying markets in Europe, USA and Asia. We are already present there. If we have to, we will expand our niche in these countries." The strategy of the new First Vice-Premier of Ukraine is clear.

It is obvious what this strategy did for Viktor Yushchenko in a couple of years. If "Yanukovych's team" wants to achieve the same results, one can only wish "Keep it up!".Alexei Kovalev Pravda.Ru  Read the original in Russian  .



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